How will the Vikings use Irv Smith?

@benjackson0812 So who will miss who more?? Will Diggs miss Cousins more or visa versa??

That answer depends on two people: Josh Allen and Irv Smith Jr.

While I’m not a believer in accuracy suddenly showing up three years into the league, we saw Case Keenum become a heck of a lot better at football when he was throwing it to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen so we might see some boost in Allen’s performance simply based on Diggs being open all the time. If the Bills play to whatever strengths Allen has as a passer, Diggs can make him better and they can win games. Maybe Allen will be a little more willing to heave it up. But he’s definitely going to miss deep passes landing in his hands rather than 20 rows up if Allen’s accuracy doesn’t improve.

If Irv Smith Jr. is as good as he flashed on film (wrote about that earlier this week if you missed it), then Cousins is going to have himself a Kittle/Kelce like weapon this year and the loss of Diggs will be mitigated to some extent. If Smith Jr. doesn’t take a big step forward and he’s just an OK tight end, Cousins might find himself badly missing Diggs running wide open all the time.

The edge probably goes to Diggs missing Cousins because Smith Jr. being good seems more likely than Allen finding accuracy.

When the Vikings used a second-round pick a year and a half ago on Irv Smith Jr., a surprise both given the position and the priority, they shared their visions for a so-called “F” tight end, someone they could line up out wide and in the backfield, not merely with a hand on the turf. He was seen by coaches not as a replacement for Kyle Rudolph, as many thought that day, but a complement with a different skill set.

But when Smith showed up for training camp last season, he was “swimming,” in all that was being asked of him, Gary Kubiak said at the time. That was to be expected, the then-offensive advisor noted. Smith was 20 years old, after all, one of the youngest players drafted in the entire league, and had played only two seasons of college football. He wasn’t drafted for the impact he’d have as a rookie, but for the potential the Vikings thought he had.

A year later, the Vikings envision a bigger role for Smith. Now, they hope, they can start utilizing him like they first predicted when he was drafted. They’ll hope to show him off more in the backfield and find creative ways to get the ball in his hand.

“He has a skill set that we need to be able to utilize with the offense,” head coach Mike Zimmer said. “You can get linebackers in space and safeties in space and actually sometimes corners. So it depends on the matchups we get, and we’re always trying to look for matchups we can exploit.”

Early in training camp, Kubiak has found those ways. When the Vikings lined up for their first come-from-behind situational drill, trailing by four with two minutes left in this mock game, Kirk Cousins looked Smith’s way. He noticed Eric Wilson, a linebacker, was matched up with the tight end so he threw to Smith in the back of the end zone and Smith came down with the score.

As the Vikings have offered early signs that they’ll again lean heavily on two-tight-end sets, the importance of Smith’s role has been underscored. While Rudolph will again be a threat in the red zone, it’s Smith that can be a factor downfield. They hope his 36 catches for 311 yards and two touchdowns last season was just the start.

“Irv’s a very confident kid, he comes from a program (the University of Alabama) where he had a ton of confidence,” Kubiak said. “Came in here last year and handled himself like a vet. He works. Irv wants to be great. That’s all you can ask for as a coach for a player. His knowledge of running routes and doing things continues to grow. As I’ve said many times, he is benefitting from Kyle. Not many guys get to go sit in a room with a guy like Kyle and take their baby steps, so to speak, looking at a player like that. Irv has benefitted from that.”

That’s part of why this season already feels different. Smith laughed as he looked back to a year ago at this time. He’s not sure he’d use the same phrase as Kubiak — “swimming” in new information back then. And he wouldn’t say his head was “spinning” either.

“But it definitely was a lot,” Smith said. “And Coach Kubiak told me that from the get-go. That’s what they drafted me for, that’s why they brought me here, to come in and be an impact. I just feel like each day I would try to focus on something little, a small detail, and just come and take each day with a new approach.”

Rudolph, though, remembers that word. Swimming. There’s so much that a tight end has to do, especially in Kubiak’s offense. Blocking. Route-running. Knowing the protection calls and the passing audibles. So, yeah, Rudolph thought it was fine that Smith was struggling at first to take it all in.

“You should be swimming right now,” Rudolph recalled thinking. “Because they’re expecting a lot out of you and throwing a lot on your plate. Now, you just see a much higher comfort level mentally, being that he’s gone through it all before, he knows what to expect, he knows the offense, he played in the offense last year.”

Smith is still young — younger than even some of the team’s rookies. He just turned 22 earlier this month. But as the Vikings look for more ways to exploit opposing defenses after trading Stefon Diggs in the offseason, they’re looking to Smith.

While they had plenty of success in three-wide-receiver sets last season, Kubiak still seems to favor looks with two tight ends so that he can get Smith on the field.

This was supposed to be the year that Smith blossomed into a star. Instead, he’s pulled a disappearing act that would make David Blaine proud.

Smith was the Vikings’ second-round pick in 2019 (50th overall) and the heir apparent to Kyle Rudolph. He offers a smaller, sleeker, faster alternative at the position to Rudolph, the bigger target with sure hands. As a rookie, Smith flashed the ability to get open downfield and make the type of plays that led the Vikings to spend the kind of draft capital that they did. He wound up with only one fewer target and three fewer receptions than Rudolph, and there was every indication (or at least a widespread assumption) that the baton would be passed in 2020. It still might, but there have been zero hints of such a changing of the guard thus far.

A quick review of Smith’s first three games:

One target, one reception for 11 yards against the Green Bay Packers. Played 60% of the offensive snaps.

Four targets, one reception for three yards against the Indianapolis Colts on 65% of the snaps.

No targets against the Tennessee Titans on 55% of the snaps.

One target, zero receptions against the Houston Texans on 62% of the snaps.

He was held to one or zero targets only twice as a rookie while averaging just over three targets and 2.5 receptions per game. And in Weeks 9-12 last season he played 72%, 82%, 85% and 71% of the offensive snaps.

What’s going on?

Keep in mind that tight ends are notoriously slow to develop in the NFL, no matter their pedigree or how high they were drafted. It just takes time. But Smith is in Season 2 now and, honestly, there’s a chance he just isn’t playing as well as Vikings coaches would like. The game against the Colts, for example, included three incomplete passes intended for Smith and two penalties on him – one for offensive pass interference, plus a 15-yarder for an illegal crackback block. Not exactly a resume-builder. Since that performance, he has one target and zero catches. Maybe he needs to regain the confidence of the offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak and/or quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Nobody knows the answer to the curious case of Irv Smith Jr. outside of the Vikings’ headquarters at TCO Performance Center. And if asked directly, it’s doubtful you’d get a straight answer from any of the parties involved other than, “Irv is a good, young player with a bright future… blah, blah, blah.”

All we’re left with for now is speculation. Fortunately, speculation is a big part of what we do on sites like this.

Therefore, the best guess from yours truly is that it’s a combination of Smith’s development and performance and the change in play-calling. Remember, it was Kevin Stefanski at the helm as OC and calling the plays in 2019. The 2020 sample size is still small, but 2019 included more targets for tight ends as well as more passes to Cook – which is another mystery. Yeah, he’s been carrying the ball a lot the past two weeks, but Cook is one of the better pass-catching backs in the league and has only seven receptions through four games. That’s a 28-catch pace for a running back who caught 53 in 2019. That feels weird.

If nothing else, the lack of Cook in the passing game is yet another clue that there’s been a subtle shift in the play-calling.

In the 2020 version of the Vikings’ offense, if it’s not a handoff to Cook, it’s probably a pass to Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson. Cook has 66% of the Vikings’ carries and 70% of the rushing yards. Thielen and Jefferson have 54% of the Vikings’ targets, 58% of the receptions and 72% of the receiving yards. That’s three players accounting for over 70% of the team’s yards from scrimmage.

It’s working pretty well so far, as the Vikings have reached 30 points in three of their four games, and Cook, Thielen and Jefferson are all having very good seasons. In fact, Cook has played at an All-Pro level, leading the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns, and Jefferson and Thielen are ranked as the top two wide receivers by Pro Football Focus. Not the top two in the division or in the conference… the top two in the NFL. Not too shabby.

Now, they just need to translate these stellar performances into more wins.

Moreover, it might not be a bad idea to start diversifying the offense just a tad to avoid becoming too predictable. But I’m sure Zimmer and Kubiak know that. Opposing defenses will adjust, so counter-adjustments are required.

Which brings us back to Smith.

Who knows? Maybe it’s all just a set-up, and Zimmer instructed Kubiak to hold off on fully unleashing Irv upon the NFL until they didn’t see it coming. We can’t rule it out. That Zim is always playing 10-dimensional chess, you know. The element of surprise is lost if you reveal all your weapons too early.

On the other hand, if Smith’s absence from the offense continues much longer, the questions will grow louder. He’s either a perfectly potent weapon that they are letting go to waste, or he’s just not performing to a level yet that the draft capital expended on him would suggest he should be by Year 2.

There’s no need to abandon the jam-packed Smith bandwagon yet. However, his lack of usage is certainly something on which to keep an eye in the games ahead.