2019 Draft Day 2 Picks - Smith Jr. and Mattison

We mentioned that Vikings second-round pick Irv Smith Jr. was an analytically interesting tight end, but only ran over the broad strokes in our initial draft-night analysis. He sits at two ends of the extremes with regards to the data — his young age-of-entry and his poor combine performance.

In the past 20 years, nine tight ends have been drafted in the top 100 at the age of 21 or younger. Those tight ends have averaged twice as many yards per game as older tight ends and made the Pro Bowl at three times the rate — with two-thirds of them making the Pro Bowl at least once, compared to 22 percent of the older group. Eight of those young tight ends have had at least one season of 500 yards (89 percent) while the older group only had 47 percent of their tight ends hit that mark. Five of the nine tight ends hit 800 yards, but less than 20 percent of the older group did.

Only one tight end failed to outperform expectations for his pick slot in the younger age group, and Irv Smith being in that category is great news. From age alone, his rough odds of being a hit for the Vikings look great, roughly in the 85 percent range.

On the other hand, his combine workouts point to a tight end primed to disappoint. While my analysis points to a player who has a roughly 15 percent chance of succeeding, another type of analysis based on regression trees found that a player with Smith’s profile only has an eight percent chance of ever entering top-12 territory for a tight end. While that’s not quite the same measurement — Smith can be a worthwhile investment without having to be a top-12 tight end — it does point in a worrying direction.

His closest combine comparisons are disappointing, with players like D.J. Williams, Josh Norman (the tight end, not the corner), Jason Gavadza and Garrett Graham closest to his profile. The most notable tight ends close to his combine scores are MarQueis Gray and Tony Moeaki.

One of those extremes will likely “win out” in terms of Smith’s eventual impact, but in the meantime we can look at what he does on film to see what the Vikings see in him and how they plan to use their new tight end — an increasingly important topic as Kyle Rudolph’s future with the team remains in doubt.

Smith is also an interesting case in the context of film analysis, because he’s clearly much more “potential” than finished product. That’s not unusual for tight ends, who often struggle their rookie years, but it tells us the Vikings are looking for a player that can be coached up to hit a high ceiling. What makes that odd is that Smith is not a particularly high-ceiling prospect by athletic standards, even if his straight-line speed is a good deal better than other tight ends.

We mentioned in our piece breaking down Adam Thielen that the fundamental goal of any route-running technique is to deceive opposing coverage defenders. Right now, Smith has the tools but no plan in place as a route runner to get open.

Smith certainly has moves available to him to get open, but he doesn’t apply route-running techniques with a purpose — moving defenders off the plane of his route. Very often, he baits defenders into a route relatively similar to the one he’s already running, leaving them in a position to close on his pattern. (He’s at the bottom of the screen in the next two clips.)



On a lot of Smith’s in-breaking routes, he fails to generate separation.

His speed really is a remarkable asset. For now, however, it seems to be his biggest asset. While his quickness isn’t as bad as his poor agility testing implies, he certainly undercuts what he has with his route running. It even impacts his go routes.



Beyond that, his receiving ability is about average. His hands are good but not great and he doesn’t seem to show above-average capability with contested catches. He does have a smaller catch radius than you typically see in a tight end, even one that’s 6-foot-2.

In order to really wreak havoc on opposing defenses, however, Smith will need to be able to block. The value of tight end run blocking by itself is not extraordinary — they’re one of six or more blockers defining the success of an aspect of the game that isn’t incredibly meaningful in the first place — and if they’re bad, a team can just take them off the field and empty the tackle box of a matching defender, a luxury teams don’t have with poor run-blocking tackles.

But the reason so many in the NFL were intrigued by the concept of two-tight end sets, in part motivated by the success the Patriots were having with Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, is that it creates a bind for the defense.

In “12” personnel — one running back and two tight ends — teams could choose to play in a traditional 3-4 or 4-3 defense, featuring only four defensive backs. That way, they’ll have more bigger bodies ready to stop the run that the presence of additional blockers tends to imply.

But if they do that, they expose themselves to the threat of the pass, as tight ends should be able to expose run-defending linebackers and stretch downfield. Not only that, teams may check to different coverages more often if they expect a run, keeping their eyes forward and players close to the line of scrimmage — coverages that may be exploited by certain passing patterns.

If that second tight end isn’t much of a blocking threat, however, teams may just send out a coverage subpackage or put an extra defensive back on the field anyway, negating any advantage the confusion of 12 personnel causes. If the offense audibles into a run, the inferior run-blocking of the second tight end could lead to a blown up play without that extra run-stuffing linebacker.

Not only that, a player who can credibly block can also credibly line up in positions that will reveal coverage. If Jimmy Graham lines up as a fullback, it’s pretty likely that the defense will already account for him to release in a passing pattern; if he motions out wide, he’s not doing anything unexpected that forces the defense to reveal themselves or shift coverage.

A true multi-capable threat will force the defense to audible out of their original look if he motions because teams will have to shift from defending a heavy formation with a fullback to a light one with an extra slot receiver.

Right now, it seems Smith has the development capability to block but not the technical capability.

Overall, he’s a liability as a blocker but is altogether believable as a blocking H-back. Generally, his promise here comes from his rapid improvement over the course of the season. Right now, he’s not much different than Rudolph is as a blocker — credible, but not extraordinary — and that can be enough to make two-tight end sets for the Vikings immediately viable, with some fun gadget plays to install early.