OL and the Draft

I know like many of you, I have been frustrated by the production of the offense. We know over the past half-decade or more we have been trying to build and maintain a quality defense, so the Vikings have spent a lot of draft resources on defense.

I have just had this thought in my head, that maybe it is time that the defense has to do more with less, and maybe my expectations for the offense are higher than what is reasonable, I keep thinking of our starting defense and how this season it boasted 5 first rounders (I am considering nickel as a starting package) not including Hughes. 3 second rounders, a third, a fourth and one UDFA. I mean seriously the D is an embarrassment of riches. 5 startable corners, 5 startable safeties, I mean maybe we lack a touch of depth at LB or DT but then we need to develop some guys, regardless of whether Barr or RIchardson are back. The strength of this team should be corner development and d-line development. Which is a huge advantage for us compared to other teams as these are positions that many teams struggle to find quality. We have been efficient with the development of our picks on d-line, but if Zim is the cornerback whisperer he needs to do some work with guys who aren’t all top 50 picks.

Meanwhile the offense is composed of 2 first rounders if I count Treadwell, 3 seconds, 1 third, 1 fourth, a fifth, a sixth, and 2 UDFA’s. Maybe my expectations have been too high.

What I wanted to know is not just about the round of picks but what about if we apply actual draft value to try to quantify "talent." Although it is not the chart I typically use, I used the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart as that is the one most often cited and the one that most people are familiar with, to apply actual draft capital values to each player and then compare offense to defense. Example Hunter pick 88 draft value points 150. I won’t bore you guys with all the individual players but here are the results.

Starting offense 3143 Starting Defense 6610 Ratio 2.1:1

OK, so maybe this is a little unfair, right because several of these guys counting toward the talent matrix are free agents such as Sheldon Richardson, and his 1150 points. So lets eliminate all of the guys who were brought in as free agents.

Starting offense 2088 Starting Defense 5020 Ratio 2.4:1

Ok, so that got rid of Linval, Richardson, Reiff, Cousins, and I guess Remmers as a UDFA. But you know what maybe that is unfair because we drafted guys like Patterson and Bridgewater and they are no longer with the team. But, I guess we also drafted Floyd, so OK lets just look at the draft picks since Zimmer became HC.

Since 2014 Draft 21 offense 25 defense, no surprise, we were trying to build a defense. But the talent being thrown to one side of the ball is still grossly tilted.

Offense 2849 4731 defense Ratio: 1.66:1

Unfortunately of that 2849 Bridgewater (590), McKinnon (116), and Treadwell (760) make up just over half of that offensive draft capital.

Draft Capital by Position group (I had to round a little):

Corners 2286
Linebackers 1887
Defensive Line 588
Safety 2
QB 590
Tight End 91
Offensive Line 727
Running Backs 606
Wide Receiver 838

I know that the discussion right now will always turn back to offensive line, we actually have in fact drafted 9 lineman the last five years. That is 9/46 picks or about 19.5%. If you figure 5/22 starters are o-lineman that is 22% so we are pretty close to drafting the right number of guys.

However, the Vikings have had a total of 7,580 points in draft capital and spent 9.5% of that on our offensive line. If we were to take 22% of our resources toward offensive line it would total 1668 points, so in terms of talent the Vikings have added to the offensive line they are light 940 points. If we apply this back to the draft value chart, it suggests that we are short a late first and late second, or a couple of mid to early seconds, or an early to mid second and a couple of early thirds.

We are applying enough picks just simply not enough draft capital to build a decent offensive line.

I have stated a couple of times that I think that offensive line stock rises quite a bit in the couple of months preceding the draft(my buddy keeps a consensus board that he updated every week for the past six weeks and this is certainly been the case). There are a variety of reasons for this, but one important one is the athletic testing numbers. I think that it is hard to evaluate how athletic a lineman is, and what their potential is at the next level just watching the tape. Knowing their actual size/weight is important, since we know much of what comes out of college is often inaccurate.

I know that many are dismissive of the combine and pro days. However, I am not one them. In order to be a really good prospect you have to have good measurables and good tape. The combine is the one chance that teams get to see a large group of players side by side and even though they are not doing contact drills, you do get to see how each of them stack up against one another another and how well they move through drills that do transition to football.

That being said I realize that this is not the end all be all and that there are other factors, there are always players who are exceptions to testing and become outstanding football players. There is an old saying that you can teach technique but not athleticism. Poorer athletes need to make up for the deficiency with great technique, understanding of the game, and elite processing.

Of course, when comparing players there also has to be a context either with the numbers from the tests or between players. An example of this is some will say, a forty yard dash is irrelevant for a lineman, others will say the 10 yard split is important but not the 40, well most lineman don't run a poor 40 with a terrible 10 yard split or vice versa. I think of it this way, a tenth or two tenths of a second in a 10 yard split for a pulling guard is the difference between reaching your point on a kick-out block and or play getting blown up, it is the difference between getting the cut-off block, or the difference between being able to have your body under control so you don't whiff in space. On a screen the 40 time can be the difference between getting 1-3 yards downfield.

A player to player context could be Bradbury to McCoy and Jenkins. I like all three of these guys Bradbury, is better in terms of lateral quickness, and put up great numbers on the bench, however with respect to arms length, Jenkins 29 reps with 34 inch long arms and McCoys 29 reps with 33 inch are equally or more impressive than Bradbury's 34 with 31 3/4" arms.

I was on this site Lineman SPARQ score 2019. I have looked at these in the past, but I like that all of the rankings side by side, you don't get the spider web graphic, but I like to see comparisons. The only difference on this one is that a players height is not used. The guy explains why and I am not going to explain it but you can read it on his FAQ page. What I like is it contains a ranking of players against each other for this years draftees, and compares that to the athletic measurables of players currently playing in the NFL at the same position group. It gives you a z-score with zero being average compared to NFL players at that position and then a percentile if you like that way. 50 percentile would be the NFL average of current players.

So, I had to see where the guys I like ranked. By now you have probably figured out that I like athletic guys, last year I really liked Ragnow(4), Braden Smith(7) and O'niell(8) in SPARQ, and drafted them frequently in mocks. I also am a huge fan of the Senior Bowl. Well low and behold the 2 guys that I love this year are ranked 1 and 2 in the SPARQ. After watching all the reps I could from the senior bowl and the game itself, I was all-in on Lindstrom, and Dillard. I will admit that I liked Dillard better in the one on ones than in the game itself, but Lindstrom was awesome. I went back and read scouting reports on both and was surprised to see question marks about Lindstrom's athletic ability, because I saw no question marks, and then he went on and had an awesome combine.

Guys I like and there SPARQ ranking. Dillard 1, Lindstrom 2, Bradbury 6, Jordan 19, McCoy 21, Risner 28 (little surprised he was this high), Little 38, Howard 42, Davis 50 and Jenkins inc, Edoga incomplete.