Defensive problem the Vikings must solve for next year.

3. Minnesota Vikings

2018 Points-Allowed Rank: No. 9
2018 Yards-Allowed Rank: No. 4

We're down to splitting hairs between defensive units, but the Minnesota Vikings have more proven talent than the Chargers across all three levels of the defense and more depth in the secondary.

Last year, Minnesota tied Chicago in sacks with 50, the league's third-best total. Defensive end Danielle Hunter had a strong campaign as the team's lead pass-rusher, logging a career-high 14.5 sacks. He accomplished the feat without Everson Griffen on the opposite end for a handful of games. The three-time Pro Bowler took time away from the field to address a mental health issue but still recorded 5.5 sacks in 11 appearances.

We often overlook off-ball linebackers because they don't accumulate the most talked-about defensive stats—interceptions and sacks—but Eric Kendricks is an upper-echelon player at the position.

Kendricks splits through defenders for stops in run defense, covers the length of the field, looks smooth in his backpedal to defend the pass and makes plays on the ball. The four-year veteran broke up seven passes and picked two off in 2018.

It's no surprise the Vikings had the stingiest pass defense in terms of touchdowns allowed last year. Head coach Mike Zimmer wants to see lead cornerback Xavier Rhodes play better, but there's great depth at the position going into the season.

The Vikings have five cornerbacks who can start in any given game: Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, Mike Hughes and Holton Hill. If a starter suffers an injury or struggles, the coaching staff can plug in an alternative.

Assuming Hughes fully recovers from a torn ACL and Hill avoids further suspensions, both young cornerbacks should have roles in the upcoming season. They flashed in coverage last year, combining for two interceptions and 10 pass breakups.

Alongside All-Pro safety Harrison Smith, four-year veteran Anthony Harris emerged as a playmaker, logging six pass breakups and three interceptions in 2018.

Minnesota has ranked among the top 10 in both yards and points allowed in each of the last three seasons. With Zimmer and defensive coordinator George Edwards still in their respective positions, there's little reason to believe this group will take a step backward in 2019.

Chad Graff: For at least one day this offseason, it seemed Mike Zimmer was going to be tasked with replacing a core member of his defense for the first time since he helped construct this group upon his arrival in 2014. But the Vikings, of course, were able to return Anthony Barr, Zimmer’s first draft pick as a head coach, and largely keep together the same unit that has been among the best in the NFL the past three years.

The Vikings have ranked in the top 5 in yards against each of the past three seasons, and the top 10 in scoring defense and Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA all of those years. Still, they weren’t able last season to replicate their dominance of 2017 when the Vikings ranked first in the NFL in both yards (275.9 per game) and points allowed (15.8 per game).

Perhaps that was to be expected given the tall task of repeating a performance like that, but the question of how much longer this defense can maintain its status among the league’s elite is one at least worth asking. Everson Griffen is 31, Linval Joseph will turn 31 during the season, Harrison Smith is 30, and Xavier Rhodes is 29 — all certainly still capable of big years, but a group that represents an aging core.

Of course, it’s not just the players who have made the Vikings one of the best defensive teams in recent years. As long as Zimmer is the head coach, it’s likely it’ll be a defensive-focussed team. After all, it’s easy to forget the strides the Vikings have made on defense since allowing 30 points per game (worst in the NFL that season) in Leslie Frazier’s final year.

But the Vikings’ proverbial window for a Super Bowl always seemed to be in these years as the defensive core hit the latter stage of its prime. The Vikings’ defense was good last season, ranking fourth in yards allowed (309.7), ninth in scoring (21.3), and, perhaps most importantly, fourth in DVOA.

Now, though, they must replace Sheldon Richardson, who signed with the Cleveland Browns, and for the first time, don’t have high draft picks to add to the defense after selecting offensive players the first four rounds for the first time in the Zimmer era.

With all of that in mind, Arif, what are realistic expectations for the Vikings’ defense in 2019? How big of a loss was Richardson, and what do you make of the defensive core aging?



Arif Hasan: It is typically very difficult for a defense to maintain its top spot for very long. Defensive dynasties such as Seattle’s and Denver’s are anomalies, and even they didn’t last that long — Seattle was top five in points for five years and Denver for two years — while none of last year’s top five was in the top five in points allowed the year before. Indeed, the Vikings ranked ninth despite ranking first, sixth and fifth the three years before — and they had the same defensive core.

But just because it’s hard doesn’t mean it’s not possible; the Vikings have built themselves around their defense, prioritizing their resources there more than anything else. They need to perform, and there’s good evidence that they can. When the Vikings switched to a more familiar Cover-4 scheme after the first four games of the season, they improved their defense, ranking sixth in the final 12 games. Because they’ve kept their defensive talent — both on the field and on the sidelines — they’ve got a better chance than most of maintaining their defensive edge, especially because they’re not a turnover-dependent team.

Richardson is a significant loss, but still one that can be overcome. The Vikings won’t likely replace his production with the rotation they’ll field this year, but they can mitigate his loss in the same way they mitigated the loss of Sharrif Floyd. They have a history of producing at the position, and it will be another study in defensive coaching to see how they do it again. Interior pass rush can be valuable, but recent evidence suggests it might be overvalued, both when comparing it to edge pressure and when comparing general pressure to coverage. Because the Vikings seem to have an abundance of coverage talent, they should be in a position to handle that loss.

As for aging — that’s always unpredictable. Researchers who specialize in fantasy football have found that offensive skill players don’t really decline; they drop off cliffs. There’s no reason to think defensive players aren’t similar. The defensive group is now at a point where its key pieces are closer to that cliff, whenever that might be. That’s more of a concern than if all declines were gradual — it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that one player falling off dramatically will probably be a bigger problem than several players declining a little bit. It’s not as big a concern as it has been for previous dominant defenses; the Vikings’ oldest core pieces are 30 and 31 instead of 35 or 36. They also have a little more wiggle room at defensive back than anywhere else, a great place to be.