Post by Purple Pain on Dec 19, 2018 21:07:33 GMT -6
FiveThirtyEight: The Vikings Are Mediocre, And That’s Confusing
More at link: fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-vikings-are-mediocre-and-thats-confusing/
If it feels like we still don’t know how good the Minnesota Vikings are after 15 weeks of football, it’s probably because … we still don’t. With their playoff hopes on the line Sunday, the Vikings cruised past the Miami Dolphins — a team whose own playoff future was in flux — in a 41-17 rout. According to the FiveThirtyEight Elo prediction model, Minnesota now has a 58 percent chance of making the postseason, giving the Vikings an edge in playoff odds over Philadelphia (39 percent), Washington (11 percent) and Carolina (less than 1 percent) in the battle for the NFC’s second and final wild card spot.
And yet, the Vikings have been one of the tougher teams to figure out this season. (As if they would have it any other way.) Surprise Super Bowl contenders last year, they pre-emptively moved on from journeyman quarterback Case Keenum to the highly paid Kirk Cousins — a move that seems to get second-guessed on a weekly basis. But every time this team is written off, Minnesota has responded with a performance like Sunday’s win. So why have these Vikings been so mystifying? Did the recent firing of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo do anything to fix the team’s malaise? And is Minnesota still in a position to realistically contend for that elusive first Super Bowl ring in franchise history?
One reason the Vikings have seemed so disappointing is that expectations were very high after last season’s miraculous run to the NFC title game. This time last year, Minnesota’s Elo rating was 1639, tied for fourth-best in the NFL. And before the 2018 season began, its Elo was 1602 — the highest it had been before any season since 1999. (That year, the Vikings went 10-6 and lost in the divisional round, which was also disappointing relative to expectations.) Compared with either lofty standard, the Vikings’ current rating of 1560 — 11th-best in football — hasn’t really hit the mark. Among teams that are still above a 1500 (i.e., average) Elo right now, only Philadelphia has fallen short of its preseason rating by a wider margin than the Vikings have.
Minnesota hasn’t been able to gain much ground in Elo in part because it only ever beats the opponents it’s supposed to. (Except when it loses to them as 16½-point favorites.) The Vikings’ wins have come against a group that has a combined .313 winning percentage in games against other opponents, which is second only to the Cardinals (.269) for lowest in the league in terms of opponents a team has beaten. Meanwhile, the teams who have beaten the Vikings have a combined winning percentage of .704, fourth-highest in the league. (Their tie was against a Packers team with a .385 winning percentage in other games.)
And yet, the Vikings have been one of the tougher teams to figure out this season. (As if they would have it any other way.) Surprise Super Bowl contenders last year, they pre-emptively moved on from journeyman quarterback Case Keenum to the highly paid Kirk Cousins — a move that seems to get second-guessed on a weekly basis. But every time this team is written off, Minnesota has responded with a performance like Sunday’s win. So why have these Vikings been so mystifying? Did the recent firing of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo do anything to fix the team’s malaise? And is Minnesota still in a position to realistically contend for that elusive first Super Bowl ring in franchise history?
One reason the Vikings have seemed so disappointing is that expectations were very high after last season’s miraculous run to the NFC title game. This time last year, Minnesota’s Elo rating was 1639, tied for fourth-best in the NFL. And before the 2018 season began, its Elo was 1602 — the highest it had been before any season since 1999. (That year, the Vikings went 10-6 and lost in the divisional round, which was also disappointing relative to expectations.) Compared with either lofty standard, the Vikings’ current rating of 1560 — 11th-best in football — hasn’t really hit the mark. Among teams that are still above a 1500 (i.e., average) Elo right now, only Philadelphia has fallen short of its preseason rating by a wider margin than the Vikings have.
Minnesota hasn’t been able to gain much ground in Elo in part because it only ever beats the opponents it’s supposed to. (Except when it loses to them as 16½-point favorites.) The Vikings’ wins have come against a group that has a combined .313 winning percentage in games against other opponents, which is second only to the Cardinals (.269) for lowest in the league in terms of opponents a team has beaten. Meanwhile, the teams who have beaten the Vikings have a combined winning percentage of .704, fourth-highest in the league. (Their tie was against a Packers team with a .385 winning percentage in other games.)
More at link: fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-vikings-are-mediocre-and-thats-confusing/
... and neither is this Chris guy.