NFC North Discussion

What do you think will attribute to the levelling off?  The supply offered through the draft has been minimal with precious few competent starters drafted each year and a league littered with failed attempts to draft that solid starting QB.  Brees and Brady are nearing their end.  So is Rivers, Manning, and not far behind, Roethlisberger.  Add to the fray more starters that are about to become backups: Tannehill, Bortles, Winston.  Add to that, the number of mediocre to poor performing QB's: Keenum, Stafford, Alex Smith (out), Flacco, Dalton, and Mariota.  All these numbers point toward the need for MORE QB's.  Not enough teams have quality QB play which will continue driving their price tag upward.   

And look at the teams in the playoffs - what do they all have in common?  They all have good to above average QB play.  It's not a position you can expect to get by on the cheap.  Successful teams have QB's that can throw successfully with very few exceptions.  While a team emerges that is strong to mask mediocre QB play, these teams are few and far between.

Looking at the last number of drafts, you can see a trend that doesn't lend toward a surplus of great arms which would in turn, level the pay scale.  The 2018 draft class may be an aberration as 5 players are starting from that class but we don't yet know how many will thrive.  That number may go down as players can fade which has been a problem lately.  Here are the number of current starters by draft year and this number is generous as a few are currently backing up (Flacco) or hurt (Smith, Newton, Garroppolo):

2018 - 5
2017 - 3
2016 - 3
2015 - 2
2014 - 3
2013 - 0
2012 - 5
2011 - 2
2010 - 0
2009 - 1
2008 - 2
2007 - 0
2006 - 0

There are a lot of lean years there, lots of zeroes which trends toward a deficient supply which in turn drives the price up for QB value.  In my opinion, this only goes up unless you see several sustained drafts turning out multiple competent starting QB's.  However, the amount of guaranteed money tied into the most expensive asset may go down in light of the Alex Smith injury.  This gives GM's a little leverage but not much.  The better QB's still hold all the cards and can simply sign elsewhere where someone WILL give them a ton of guaranteed cash as witnessed last free agency.