Post by Funkytown on Jul 8, 2018 19:36:58 GMT -6
Vikings Fantasy Preview by Evan Silva
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More about the running game at the link:
www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80776/59/vikings-fantasy-preview
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Also...
The Case for Dalvin Cook as a Top 5 Running Back by Marc Szymanski
Rest at the link:
top2sports.com/2018/07/03/the-case-for-dalvin-cook-as-a-top-5-running-back/
Vikings Offensive Profile Under Mike Zimmer
2014-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 22nd, 32nd, 12th, 21st
2014-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 18th, 4th, 25th, 2nd
2014-2017 Play Volume Rank: 28th, 28th, 23rd, 7th
2014-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 26th, 25th, 28th, 13th
Unaccounted for Air Yards from 2017 (Rank): 336 (30th)
Unaccounted for Carries from 2017 (Rank): 195 (9th)
2014-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 22nd, 32nd, 12th, 21st
2014-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 18th, 4th, 25th, 2nd
2014-2017 Play Volume Rank: 28th, 28th, 23rd, 7th
2014-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 26th, 25th, 28th, 13th
Unaccounted for Air Yards from 2017 (Rank): 336 (30th)
Unaccounted for Carries from 2017 (Rank): 195 (9th)
Passing Game Outlook
Kirk Cousins landed a three-year, $84 million deal from the Vikings after three straight top-eight QB1 seasons in Washington, where he ranked 12th, 6th, and 8th in the NFL in pass attempts. Volume will be Cousins’ biggest fantasy obstacle in Minnesota. Mike Zimmer’s top-five defense keeps his team in run-friendly game scripts; the Vikings’ average ranking in pass attempts is 22nd in Zimmer’s four years as coach. Cousins will have to compensate with efficiency, conveniently a strong suit of both Cousins and his new weapons. Over the last three years, Cousins ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt (7.8), sixth in passer rating (97.5), and ninth in touchdown passes (81). Adam Thielen (No. 7) and Stefon Diggs (No. 19) both finished top 20 among 93 qualified receivers in PFF’s Yards Per Route Run efficiency metric last season, and Kyle Rudolph is an efficient red-zone finisher. New Vikings OC John DeFilippo was Carson Wentz’s position coach during Wentz’s extreme-efficiency 2017 campaign and helped design an offense potent enough for Nick Foles to win Super Bowl MVP. Albeit in a small, nine-game sample, Cousins has been more efficient playing indoors (100.7 rating, 8.30 YPA) than outdoors (92.4, 7.63) and will now play beneath Minneapolis’ U.S. Bank Stadium dome. Elite defenses like Zimmer’s can give offenses shorter fields, spiking TD rates. Even if Cousins loses volume, I like him as a safe-floor QB1 with the highest touchdown upside of his career.
Adam Thielen built on his flash-filled 2016 season for a monster 2017 breakout, finishing eighth among NFL receivers in targets (143) and catches (91), and fifth in yards (1,277). In the playoffs, the Saints worried about Thielen enough to shadow him with Marshon Lattimore. A onetime preseason star who went undrafted out of Minnesota State in 2013, Thielen has developed into one of the league’s premier route runners. Even if Thielen loses 2018 catches and yards, he can compensate with positive-touchdown regression after scoring just four TDs despite leading the Vikings in red-zone targets (17). Flukily, Thielen caught 1-of-8 targets (12.5%) inside the 10-yard line. Thielen’s catch rate was a sparkling 67.2% everywhere else on the field, and he corralled 3-of-5 targets inside the ten in the previous year. Thielen ran 51.1% his 2017 routes in the slot, but also showed an ability to win on the perimeter. His averages were 2.11 yards per route run and 8.46 yards per target in the slot, with 2.55 YPRR and 10.5 YPT outside.
Stefon Diggs exploded out of the 2017 gates as the overall WR1 by nearly three PPR points per game in Weeks 1-4, only to suffer a debilitating Week 5 groin injury on Soldier Field’s long-problematic grass. It was his second groin injury in as many seasons; Diggs admitted he was “never the same” after straining his groin in Week 4 of 2016. Diggs missed two games and was the PPR WR24 from Weeks 8-17, never again clearing 80 yards after doing so three times in the first month. Diggs saved his fantasy bottom line with a career-high eight TDs, finding pay dirt on 12.5% of his receptions after scoring at a 5.1% rate in his first two years. 100% in the playoffs, Diggs went off for 14 catches and 207 yards against the Saints and Eagles, most memorably house calling Minnesota’s 61-yard game winner in the Divisional Round. A truly special talent, Diggs’ skill set is arguably the NFL’s closest to Antonio Brown. Even if his scoring rate dips, Diggs offers a mouth-watering ceiling should he finally kick the groin woes in his contract year.
The Vikings’ third-receiver battle between Laquon Treadwell and Kendall Wright will impact Thielen because Thielen will play outside more should Wright claim the job and inside more if Treadwell wins. Jamison Crowder -- a slot receiver like Wright -- led Cousins’ 2017 Redskins in targets and catches. Wright paced last year’s Bears in receiving, but landed just a one-year, $1 million deal in free agency. Although Wright has been a far superior pro, the Vikings invested a 2016 first-round pick into Treadwell and won’t give up on him at age 23. Treadwell handled all first-team third-receiver reps during OTAs.
Kirk Cousins landed a three-year, $84 million deal from the Vikings after three straight top-eight QB1 seasons in Washington, where he ranked 12th, 6th, and 8th in the NFL in pass attempts. Volume will be Cousins’ biggest fantasy obstacle in Minnesota. Mike Zimmer’s top-five defense keeps his team in run-friendly game scripts; the Vikings’ average ranking in pass attempts is 22nd in Zimmer’s four years as coach. Cousins will have to compensate with efficiency, conveniently a strong suit of both Cousins and his new weapons. Over the last three years, Cousins ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt (7.8), sixth in passer rating (97.5), and ninth in touchdown passes (81). Adam Thielen (No. 7) and Stefon Diggs (No. 19) both finished top 20 among 93 qualified receivers in PFF’s Yards Per Route Run efficiency metric last season, and Kyle Rudolph is an efficient red-zone finisher. New Vikings OC John DeFilippo was Carson Wentz’s position coach during Wentz’s extreme-efficiency 2017 campaign and helped design an offense potent enough for Nick Foles to win Super Bowl MVP. Albeit in a small, nine-game sample, Cousins has been more efficient playing indoors (100.7 rating, 8.30 YPA) than outdoors (92.4, 7.63) and will now play beneath Minneapolis’ U.S. Bank Stadium dome. Elite defenses like Zimmer’s can give offenses shorter fields, spiking TD rates. Even if Cousins loses volume, I like him as a safe-floor QB1 with the highest touchdown upside of his career.
Adam Thielen built on his flash-filled 2016 season for a monster 2017 breakout, finishing eighth among NFL receivers in targets (143) and catches (91), and fifth in yards (1,277). In the playoffs, the Saints worried about Thielen enough to shadow him with Marshon Lattimore. A onetime preseason star who went undrafted out of Minnesota State in 2013, Thielen has developed into one of the league’s premier route runners. Even if Thielen loses 2018 catches and yards, he can compensate with positive-touchdown regression after scoring just four TDs despite leading the Vikings in red-zone targets (17). Flukily, Thielen caught 1-of-8 targets (12.5%) inside the 10-yard line. Thielen’s catch rate was a sparkling 67.2% everywhere else on the field, and he corralled 3-of-5 targets inside the ten in the previous year. Thielen ran 51.1% his 2017 routes in the slot, but also showed an ability to win on the perimeter. His averages were 2.11 yards per route run and 8.46 yards per target in the slot, with 2.55 YPRR and 10.5 YPT outside.
Stefon Diggs exploded out of the 2017 gates as the overall WR1 by nearly three PPR points per game in Weeks 1-4, only to suffer a debilitating Week 5 groin injury on Soldier Field’s long-problematic grass. It was his second groin injury in as many seasons; Diggs admitted he was “never the same” after straining his groin in Week 4 of 2016. Diggs missed two games and was the PPR WR24 from Weeks 8-17, never again clearing 80 yards after doing so three times in the first month. Diggs saved his fantasy bottom line with a career-high eight TDs, finding pay dirt on 12.5% of his receptions after scoring at a 5.1% rate in his first two years. 100% in the playoffs, Diggs went off for 14 catches and 207 yards against the Saints and Eagles, most memorably house calling Minnesota’s 61-yard game winner in the Divisional Round. A truly special talent, Diggs’ skill set is arguably the NFL’s closest to Antonio Brown. Even if his scoring rate dips, Diggs offers a mouth-watering ceiling should he finally kick the groin woes in his contract year.
The Vikings’ third-receiver battle between Laquon Treadwell and Kendall Wright will impact Thielen because Thielen will play outside more should Wright claim the job and inside more if Treadwell wins. Jamison Crowder -- a slot receiver like Wright -- led Cousins’ 2017 Redskins in targets and catches. Wright paced last year’s Bears in receiving, but landed just a one-year, $1 million deal in free agency. Although Wright has been a far superior pro, the Vikings invested a 2016 first-round pick into Treadwell and won’t give up on him at age 23. Treadwell handled all first-team third-receiver reps during OTAs.
More about the running game at the link:
www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/80776/59/vikings-fantasy-preview
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Also...
The Case for Dalvin Cook as a Top 5 Running Back by Marc Szymanski
According to the Fantasy Football Calculator, Dalvin Cook is the 10th Running Back off the board in both PPR and Standard. He only rises to 9th when it becomes Dynasty. These ADPs are currently my best friend because the further we get into the preseason, the more I realize that Dalvin Cook should be the 5th Running Back off the board in all formats. It means that no matter what slot I pick from in the first round, I will be able to draft one of my top 5 RBs. Dalvin Cook should be drafted in before Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara (against the strong opinions of the @top2pod hosts – please give their RB rankings episode a listen!).
College Pedigree Worth Considering
Dalvin Cook holds the record at Florida State for the most career rushing yards (4,464) while only playing in three seasons. He also holds the school record for the most touchdowns (46). Two of his seasons sit on top of the single season rushing yards list for the school (1,765 in 2016 and 1,691 in 2015). Florida State plays in the ACC. The same conference as Pittsburgh (37), NC State (29), Louisville (18), Clemson (10), and Boston College (1). The number in parenthesis is the overall defensive rankings for the 2016 season in the NCAA. In other words, he was facing good defenses in that record breaking year.
Cousins Targets his Running Backs
Kirk Cousins has the ability to provide PPR value to his Running Backs. The only thing that has held this statistic from being even more impressive is the health of Chris Thompson. In 10 games (2017), Chris Thompson caught 39 passes for 510 yards and 4 touchdowns. If he had played 16 games while performing at the same level, that would have been 816 yards and 6 touchdowns. A counter argument might be, “Chris Thompson doesn’t play for Minnesota.” The answer to that argument would be, “Dalvin Cook plays the passing downs.” In the three full games before his injury (week 4), he played in 70% of snaps. Jerick McKinnon was used in the passing game after Cook’s injury, but McKinnon left town to be the 49ers lead back. Latavius Murray is not a passing down back. I’ll tell you a secret, he’s not as good as Dalvin Cook, either.
College Pedigree Worth Considering
Dalvin Cook holds the record at Florida State for the most career rushing yards (4,464) while only playing in three seasons. He also holds the school record for the most touchdowns (46). Two of his seasons sit on top of the single season rushing yards list for the school (1,765 in 2016 and 1,691 in 2015). Florida State plays in the ACC. The same conference as Pittsburgh (37), NC State (29), Louisville (18), Clemson (10), and Boston College (1). The number in parenthesis is the overall defensive rankings for the 2016 season in the NCAA. In other words, he was facing good defenses in that record breaking year.
Cousins Targets his Running Backs
Kirk Cousins has the ability to provide PPR value to his Running Backs. The only thing that has held this statistic from being even more impressive is the health of Chris Thompson. In 10 games (2017), Chris Thompson caught 39 passes for 510 yards and 4 touchdowns. If he had played 16 games while performing at the same level, that would have been 816 yards and 6 touchdowns. A counter argument might be, “Chris Thompson doesn’t play for Minnesota.” The answer to that argument would be, “Dalvin Cook plays the passing downs.” In the three full games before his injury (week 4), he played in 70% of snaps. Jerick McKinnon was used in the passing game after Cook’s injury, but McKinnon left town to be the 49ers lead back. Latavius Murray is not a passing down back. I’ll tell you a secret, he’s not as good as Dalvin Cook, either.
Rest at the link:
top2sports.com/2018/07/03/the-case-for-dalvin-cook-as-a-top-5-running-back/