Post by Funkytown on Feb 16, 2018 21:41:02 GMT -6
Older piece, but I missed it at the time. Worth the read.
Case Keenum and the Season of Supporting Casts by Cian Fahey
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Link: presnapreads.com/2017/11/28/case-keenum-and-the-season-of-supporting-casts/
Case Keenum and the Season of Supporting Casts by Cian Fahey
Peyton Manning was mostly a passenger on the Denver Broncos team that won the Super Bowl in 2015, a hindrance even. The Broncos won the Super Bowl in spite of their once-great quarterback who had decayed into a derelict state. For most of Manning’s career he was the reason his teams won. He elevated his offensive line by identifying alignments and tendencies before getting the ball out instantly or audibling to a running play that had a higher chance for success. Manning mostly played with great receivers, but they didn’t need to be great because he could throw them open with anticipation and precision. It’s why the Broncos’ 2015 season was so unusual.
The quarterback who had spent his career carrying inferior teams to undeserved heights was now being lifted up by Von Miller and company. Sure, Manning was better in the playoffs even considering his attempt to throw the ball through Kony Ealy’s chest in the Super Bowl itself. But during the regular season he threw for nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions, numbers that flattered his commitment to floating the ball above the heads of waiting defensive backs.
Although Manning’s team won the Super Bowl that season, 2015 was defined by quarterbacks elevating those around them.
Cam Newton won the MVP with Ted Ginn as his number one wide receiver. Ted Ginn and an offensive line that essentially functioned without offensive tackles. Newton repeatedly hit tight windows with anticipation while being accosted in the pocket. Carson Palmer moved stride for stride with Newton until a finger injury derailed him late in the season. Palmer was working with no margin for error behind a limited offensive line and in Bruce Arians’ extremely aggressive offense so that seemingly minor injury had a major impact on his output.
Once Palmer dropped out, Newton became the obvious choice for MVP but they weren’t the only quarterbacks excelling in spite of those around them. Tom Brady overcame an underperforming offensive line until he met that Broncos defense in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers’ receiving corps lost Jordy Nelson so he was left with a group of receivers who couldn’t create separation and who believed catching the ball was optional. Russell Wilson had the most productive season of his career as a passer even with an ineffective-then-injured Jimmy Graham and an offensive line that had begun its downward spiral.
Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater, Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill and Tyrod Taylor could all be characterized as quarterbacks who were elevating those around them rather than relying on those around them.
017 has been defined by the opposite.
The quarterback who had spent his career carrying inferior teams to undeserved heights was now being lifted up by Von Miller and company. Sure, Manning was better in the playoffs even considering his attempt to throw the ball through Kony Ealy’s chest in the Super Bowl itself. But during the regular season he threw for nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions, numbers that flattered his commitment to floating the ball above the heads of waiting defensive backs.
Although Manning’s team won the Super Bowl that season, 2015 was defined by quarterbacks elevating those around them.
Cam Newton won the MVP with Ted Ginn as his number one wide receiver. Ted Ginn and an offensive line that essentially functioned without offensive tackles. Newton repeatedly hit tight windows with anticipation while being accosted in the pocket. Carson Palmer moved stride for stride with Newton until a finger injury derailed him late in the season. Palmer was working with no margin for error behind a limited offensive line and in Bruce Arians’ extremely aggressive offense so that seemingly minor injury had a major impact on his output.
Once Palmer dropped out, Newton became the obvious choice for MVP but they weren’t the only quarterbacks excelling in spite of those around them. Tom Brady overcame an underperforming offensive line until he met that Broncos defense in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers’ receiving corps lost Jordy Nelson so he was left with a group of receivers who couldn’t create separation and who believed catching the ball was optional. Russell Wilson had the most productive season of his career as a passer even with an ineffective-then-injured Jimmy Graham and an offensive line that had begun its downward spiral.
Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater, Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill and Tyrod Taylor could all be characterized as quarterbacks who were elevating those around them rather than relying on those around them.
017 has been defined by the opposite.
With Pat Shurmur proving to be an unpredictable and balanced play caller, Case Keenum’s conditions in Minnesota are close to perfect. The pockets he operates in aren’t those that Sam Bradford operated in. A three-man rush is no longer a threat to the quarterback, a four-man rush is rarely a threat to the quarterback. If Demarcus Lawrence is across the line of scrimmage, he can’t expect to arrive in the backfield immediately after the ball like he could last season.
Keenum was never an awful quarterback. He was never Brock Osweiler. When he first got a shot in the NFL with the Houston Texans, he proved to be unaware of his limitations. He was a gunslinger who shot with the speed of soap bubbles. He had plus athleticism but wasn’t a great athlete and didn’t offer up any significant upside with his mental or technical ability. There was a level of poise that elevated him above other backup quarterbacks, as well as a propensity for missing throws and moving into pressure that kept him tied to those backup quarterbacks.
Decision-making is still a big issue for Keenum.
Keenum was never an awful quarterback. He was never Brock Osweiler. When he first got a shot in the NFL with the Houston Texans, he proved to be unaware of his limitations. He was a gunslinger who shot with the speed of soap bubbles. He had plus athleticism but wasn’t a great athlete and didn’t offer up any significant upside with his mental or technical ability. There was a level of poise that elevated him above other backup quarterbacks, as well as a propensity for missing throws and moving into pressure that kept him tied to those backup quarterbacks.
Decision-making is still a big issue for Keenum.
5.45 percent of his passes have been interceptable, one every 18 attempts. He has thrown 18 interceptable passes on 330 attempts. Only four of those passes have been caught by a defender, 22 percent. Matt Ryan was the only quarterback in the NFL last year to throw more than 200 passes and have fewer than 25 percent of his interceptable passes caught by a defender. Furthermore, Keenum’s interceptable passes have come in bunches. He has three games this season with at least three interceptable passes, two with four, and two more games with two interceptable passes.
His most egregious mistakes came against Washington in Week 10.
His most egregious mistakes came against Washington in Week 10.
Playing with the best defense in the NFL comes with some benefits for the quarterback. His interception went unpunished. At least, his first interception went unpunished. As if they were Brady and Welker, Keenum and Swearinger connected again on his next pass attempt. This time Keenum failed to recognize the safety rotation, threw the ball way too late and too far inside. Swearinger could even wait on the ball to make sure he didn’t contact Rudolph before catching it.
This was a mental error from the quarterback but even if he had released the ball on time it wouldn’t have reached his tight end because of his limited arm strength.
Interception opportunities are going to remain consistent with Keenum. Relying on defenders to continue missing those opportunities is not a strategy the Vikings should be comfortable with. Limited arm strength, an aggressive mindset and limited acumen will always make the threat of a full-on meltdown game stronger. What has kept Keenum in the starting lineup ahead of the returning Teddy Bridgewater is partially luck from defenders dropping passes but also Keenum’s ability to execute the offense to a certain level.
Besides his awful decisions that lead to interception opportunities, he is generally able to diagnose coverages and understands where to go with the ball. His timing getting rid of the ball is less consistent but his athleticism allows him to escape the pressure he moves himself into at times. Most importantly, when Keenum misses he doesn’t miss wildly. He’s not an accurate passer but he throws catchable passes at a higher rate than most backup quarterbacks.
As the above chart shows, Keenum hasn’t really changed since last season. His accuracy numbers are not good. His two best games have come over the past two weeks. He accurate on 76 percent of his passes in each of those games and threw only one interceptable pass on 48 attempts. Keenum also had his best play of the season with a perfect touchdown pass to Rudolph on a corner route in Detroit.
Prior to those games he was below 72 percent in every game but one and below 70 percent in five of eight. If we subtract Keenum’s first game of the season, when he was 50 percent accurate, his accuracy percentage for the season is 68 percent. An awful number.
And yet, because Keenum doesn’t miss wildly when he does, he has allowed the passing game to function. That is because the Vikings skill position players are exceptionally good at catching inaccurate passes. Throwing the ball to Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph (Thielen especially and Rudolph less so than Diggs) is a lot easier than throwing the ball to say, Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin. Thielen and Diggs excel at creating wide windows for their quarterback because of how they can create separation and offer wide catch radiuses at the catch point. Rudolph is less consistent catching the ball but moves more fluidly than most tight ends.
So far this season, Keenum has thrown 330 passes. On those 330 passes the Vikings skill position players have combined to catch 22 inaccurate passes for 369 yards and two touchdowns. 6.7 percent of Keenum’s attempts have been inaccurate completions, 14.9 percent of his yards have come on those plays. Last year only Matt Barkley eclipsed five percent of his attempts, only 13 of 33 quarterbacks eclipsed three percent. Derek Carr was the only quarterback to gain more than 10 percent of his yards on inaccurate passes, only eight quarterbacks eclipsed seven percent.
This was a mental error from the quarterback but even if he had released the ball on time it wouldn’t have reached his tight end because of his limited arm strength.
Interception opportunities are going to remain consistent with Keenum. Relying on defenders to continue missing those opportunities is not a strategy the Vikings should be comfortable with. Limited arm strength, an aggressive mindset and limited acumen will always make the threat of a full-on meltdown game stronger. What has kept Keenum in the starting lineup ahead of the returning Teddy Bridgewater is partially luck from defenders dropping passes but also Keenum’s ability to execute the offense to a certain level.
Besides his awful decisions that lead to interception opportunities, he is generally able to diagnose coverages and understands where to go with the ball. His timing getting rid of the ball is less consistent but his athleticism allows him to escape the pressure he moves himself into at times. Most importantly, when Keenum misses he doesn’t miss wildly. He’s not an accurate passer but he throws catchable passes at a higher rate than most backup quarterbacks.
As the above chart shows, Keenum hasn’t really changed since last season. His accuracy numbers are not good. His two best games have come over the past two weeks. He accurate on 76 percent of his passes in each of those games and threw only one interceptable pass on 48 attempts. Keenum also had his best play of the season with a perfect touchdown pass to Rudolph on a corner route in Detroit.
Prior to those games he was below 72 percent in every game but one and below 70 percent in five of eight. If we subtract Keenum’s first game of the season, when he was 50 percent accurate, his accuracy percentage for the season is 68 percent. An awful number.
And yet, because Keenum doesn’t miss wildly when he does, he has allowed the passing game to function. That is because the Vikings skill position players are exceptionally good at catching inaccurate passes. Throwing the ball to Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph (Thielen especially and Rudolph less so than Diggs) is a lot easier than throwing the ball to say, Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin. Thielen and Diggs excel at creating wide windows for their quarterback because of how they can create separation and offer wide catch radiuses at the catch point. Rudolph is less consistent catching the ball but moves more fluidly than most tight ends.
So far this season, Keenum has thrown 330 passes. On those 330 passes the Vikings skill position players have combined to catch 22 inaccurate passes for 369 yards and two touchdowns. 6.7 percent of Keenum’s attempts have been inaccurate completions, 14.9 percent of his yards have come on those plays. Last year only Matt Barkley eclipsed five percent of his attempts, only 13 of 33 quarterbacks eclipsed three percent. Derek Carr was the only quarterback to gain more than 10 percent of his yards on inaccurate passes, only eight quarterbacks eclipsed seven percent.
Link: presnapreads.com/2017/11/28/case-keenum-and-the-season-of-supporting-casts/
... and neither is this Chris guy.