2023 Offensive Line Discussion
Jul 8, 2023 22:54:39 GMT -6
Funkytown, Minniman, and 3 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Jul 8, 2023 22:54:39 GMT -6
I was curious how far away Ingram really is. It's tough to tell the performance of guards because the line between really good and really bad is so thin, even the bad ones prevent pressure most of the time. To compare I was using PFF's data for:
- Total pressure opportunities
- Pressures allowed
That allowed me to calculate a success rate for Ingram and a few other players. I didn't want to use a pass blocking grade since I can't tell how they actually calculate that.
Ingram had:
729 Opportunities
58 Pressures allowed
= 92.0% Success Rate
So I'll use 92% as a threshold for really bad. Comparing that to some good or better pass blocking guards on teams with good offenses. Not all of these guys rate super high on a raw PFF score, but they were the better of the 2 guards for their team and the team did well, so they are good enough. (Plus Dalton Disner since he was referenced above)
Joe Thuney (Chiefs): 97.6% Success
Landon Dickerson (Eagles): 96.9% Success
Alex Cappa (Bengals): 97.0% Success
Dalton Risner (Broncos): 94.8% Success
Thuney was the highest rated pass blocking guard in the NFL, so he's a high bar. But 96.5% - 97.0% success rate seems to be a pretty good target.
Now, looking at Ingram's game by game pressure success rate using those two standards for really bad - pretty good. It's really a tale of two seasons.
Game 1-10 he was below the really bad threshold 7/10 times, and never even approached pretty good levels of play.
Games 11-17 he still had 2 really bad games, but also 4/7 where we was actually pretty good. He was still somewhat up and down, but over those last 7 games, his success rate was 95.2%; already ahead of a guy like Risner.
Those two groups of games slit out to be:
Games 1-10 = 4.3 pressures per game
Games 11-17 = 2.1 pressures per game
Looking at 2023:
If Ingram continues his play from games 11-17, he'd be just OK. If he's able to build on those last 7 games, then Ingram has the potential to be pretty good. It all depends on if that run late in the year was Ingram actually improving or just the randomness of a small number of games.
Considering a player's biggest jump is supposed to be from year 1 to year 2, it seems within reach for Ingram to get his pressures under 2 per game. I'm happy to give him that chance.
- Total pressure opportunities
- Pressures allowed
That allowed me to calculate a success rate for Ingram and a few other players. I didn't want to use a pass blocking grade since I can't tell how they actually calculate that.
Ingram had:
729 Opportunities
58 Pressures allowed
= 92.0% Success Rate
So I'll use 92% as a threshold for really bad. Comparing that to some good or better pass blocking guards on teams with good offenses. Not all of these guys rate super high on a raw PFF score, but they were the better of the 2 guards for their team and the team did well, so they are good enough. (Plus Dalton Disner since he was referenced above)
Joe Thuney (Chiefs): 97.6% Success
Landon Dickerson (Eagles): 96.9% Success
Alex Cappa (Bengals): 97.0% Success
Dalton Risner (Broncos): 94.8% Success
Thuney was the highest rated pass blocking guard in the NFL, so he's a high bar. But 96.5% - 97.0% success rate seems to be a pretty good target.
Now, looking at Ingram's game by game pressure success rate using those two standards for really bad - pretty good. It's really a tale of two seasons.
Game 1-10 he was below the really bad threshold 7/10 times, and never even approached pretty good levels of play.
Games 11-17 he still had 2 really bad games, but also 4/7 where we was actually pretty good. He was still somewhat up and down, but over those last 7 games, his success rate was 95.2%; already ahead of a guy like Risner.
Those two groups of games slit out to be:
Games 1-10 = 4.3 pressures per game
Games 11-17 = 2.1 pressures per game
Looking at 2023:
If Ingram continues his play from games 11-17, he'd be just OK. If he's able to build on those last 7 games, then Ingram has the potential to be pretty good. It all depends on if that run late in the year was Ingram actually improving or just the randomness of a small number of games.
Considering a player's biggest jump is supposed to be from year 1 to year 2, it seems within reach for Ingram to get his pressures under 2 per game. I'm happy to give him that chance.