For some, the NFL offseason is the most boring part of the year; while I mostly agree, it leaves plenty of time to write speculation articles! Hooray! It's time for the 3rd annual Danchat's Guide to the Offseason where I will write a guide of how I would manage the Vikings roster. This is not an article about predicting what will happen, but I guess I can show off if I do happen to nail any of these predictions. 

This year we'll have some spreadsheets to show how the cap situation will play out:

Vikings current cap:



So at the moment they've got about $53.3M in cap. Now, let's tinker with this roster!

Pre-Free Agency Moves

Releases

HB Latavius Murray - saves $5.15M

Here's a move I don't think the Vikings will actually make but I think they should. Dalvin Cook should be the unquestioned HB as he recovers from an ACL tear, and they don't need his insurance policy, Murray, to take up $6.35M of cap room. Murray was a average HB last season and was an effective power back able to score those rushing TDs in the redzone. He still has little ability to break tackles and isn't a threat on 1st and 10. The Vikings can go cheaper at backup HB and find a more effective player.

DT Sharrif Floyd - saves $6.76M

Floyd is still under contract because his contract tolled due to spending the whole season on the NF-injury list. His career is probably over after a botched knee scope that wrecked one of his nerves.

Restricted Free Agency

LG Nick Easton - 2nd Round Tender (estimated $2.83M)

Easton was a UDFA, so the Vikings will risk losing Easton for no compensation if they give him an original round tender (will save approx. $1M). It's hard to say how well Easton played as PFF didn't like his play, but he was a much better fit than Alex Boone was. He will likely enter camp as the starting LG but the Vikings should add some competition there.

G/T Jeremiah Sirles - 2nd Round Tender ($2.83M)

This was a tough decision, but I've decided to slightly overpay for a solid backup offensive lineman. Sirles can fill in at guard without being overwhelmed and is a replacement-level RT and will be active every game in case an injury happens. 2nd year player Danny Isidora will push him for that role but I think Sirles should keep it.

S Anthony Harris - 2nd Round Tender ($2.83M)

I didn't project Harris to make last season's roster, but he ended up starting 3 games and was a surprisingly good player. He inflicted a forced fumble on Rams WR Cooper Kupp at the 1 yard line, completely shifting the momentum of that game. He's worth the extra cash as he was also a UDFA and will be claimed if the Vikings try to give him an original round tender. The Vikings no longer have to worry if Sendejo misses any games due to injury.

C Cornelius Edison - No Tender - The Vikings can re-sign him at the minimum salary if they want him back.

Re-signing UFAs

CB Marcus Sherels - 2/4/2 (years/total/guaranteed)

I can't say goodbye to Sherels yet. He's a great special teamer and was still effective at returning punts, even though he hasn't taken one back for a score in a while. It would make sense to groom a returner to the future, though.

QB Case Keenum - 3/60/25

Here's the part that you've been waiting for, or so I presume. Of the primary options at QB for the Vikings - Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater, and Cousins - I have decided to pick Keenum. Keenum basically went 13-4 with this team as they surprised the NFL as they took a deep run into the playoffs. Keenum has the intangibles - he has that "it" factor, he thrives on 3rd downs, he dodges sacks like a boss, and he can take hits and shake them off without his knees exploding. When the team had virtually blown yet another playoff game away, Keenum brought this team back with a great throw to Stefon Diggs. The cons are that he doesn't have that good of accuracy and can miss trickier passes and he'll sometimes make foolish deep throws and he doesn't have much of a track record. 

$20M is a lot to give Keenum and maybe they'd be able to negotiate it down to $17-18M, but seeing Alex Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo sign new deals recently, I see Keenum is going to be paid. This deal locks Keenum in as the 2018 QB but gives flexibility in case he falls apart and they need to release him before 2019 starts. While he isn't the type of guy who's going to win a Super Bowl on his own, I think he's the best of the available options to get us deep into the playoffs.

Leaving in Free Agency

QB Sam Bradford and QB Teddy Bridgewater

I can see Bradford signing a one year deal laiden with incentives, perhaps in a place like Arizona where they'd develop a young QB behind him. Teddy should sign a similar deal and compete for a starting job. For some reason I feel like Buffalo is where he'll end up. I would like to keep one of them as a backup but it isn't realistic to think they will want to return in that capacity unless Teddy's deal tolls, which doesn't look like it'll happen right now.

HB Jerick McKinnon

I really want him to return but he wants to be a feature back and I have a feeling somebody out there will pay him. The Vikings will need to find a backup HB who can replace his explosiveness and catching ability.

CB Terence Newman and CB Tramaine Brock

Newman did a very good job as the nickel corner, but he played two poor games in the playoffs. He'll be turning 40 soon and I think it's time to move on. Brock was a good starting corner in 2016 but when he was on the field in 2017 for the Vikings, he looked lost. He could compete for a reserve spot in 2018 if the Vikings think he'd be better with a full offseason with Zimmer under his belt.

WR Michael Floyd

Can you believe the incentives on Floyd's deal that would have triggered if he reached 1,000 yards? They should have triggered at 200 yards! He has about one year left bouncing between the 5th WR spot of several different teams' rosters before he's toast.

K Kai Forbath

Forbath's 2017 was an adventure but he proved he still belongs in the NFL. First it was missing PATs, then it was FGs getting blocked... the Vikings should look for better options. Having him return with a rookie kicker to compete with wouldn't be a terrible idea.

DT Tom Johnson and DT Shamar Stephen

Both DTs played well in 2017, but I have other plans at DT. Johnson is 33 but should push for $4M a year as a rotational guy and Stephen should make a little less.

OLB Lamur, HB Sankey, HB Brown, LS Overbaugh

They're backups, they can return on the 90 man roster at the minimum price if needed.

Extension(s)

Extend WR Stefon Diggs to a 4 year, $53M deal with $25M guaranteed

Diggs at WR is an incredibly crucial piece to the puzzle for the Vikings offense, so even though he has a knack to get injured, I think it's a price willing to be paid.
I spread the $25M guaranteed over 5 years, so he gets a $5M bonus in 2018, upping his cap. This probably isn't how the extension will happen but I consider it to be a bonus to Diggs as an incentive to take a little less ($12M a year) over the length of the contract.

Trade(s)

Alright, so I was so, so very close to trading away Anthony Barr... but in the end 1) I couldn't find a better LB to replace him with and 2) I didn't need to dump his $12M contract. I think Barr is a little overrated and isn't much of an impact player, but it'd be foolish to ship him off for a 3rd round pick at this point.

Trade WR Treadwell to the Panthers for a conditional 6th round pick.

I liked the Treadwell pick when it happened... but it's clear he never regained his agility from his college days after a nasty injury in a bowl game. The Vikings would lose over $4M in cap space if they straight-up cut him, so I bet they could ship him off to a WR-needy team like Carolina for a late pick. 


Free Agency

Sign G/T Justin Pugh 4/32.8/14

With Joe Berger retiring, the Vikings need a RG who can step in and upgrade this offensive line immediately. Pugh can do that. The Giants played him at RT this season and he didn't play very well and missed 8 games due to injury - but that just makes the price more affordable for the Vikes. The 4 previous seasons he spent at guard and he excelled there, so while they are taking a bit of a gamble here, Pugh should be an impact addition to the O-line.

Sign CB Nickell Robey-Coleman 3/13.5/4.5

With Newman moving on and Alexander probably not ready for nickel duties, the Vikings should try to shore up this position. Robey-Coleman was one of the league's best nickel corners as he was the Rams' best corner according to PFF. The starting lineup of Rhodes-Waynes-RobeyC should be one of the best in the NFL if Waynes can take a step up from 2017.

Sign DT Denico Autry 3/10.5/4

Autry is a passing rushing interior lineman for the Raiders who's fresh off a 5 sack season. He's around the talent level of Tom Johnson but he'll be 28 years old instead of 34. Autry should rotate with Jaleel Johnson next to Joseph and be able to bring some heat while not being a liability in the run stopping game.

Sign HB Rex Burkhead 2/7/3.5

I wanted this to happen last year and I'm going to do it again! Burkhead was an effective HB for the Patriots in 2017 but had to put up with 3 other HBs, so he didn't get to touch the ball much. When he does, he's one of the league's best receiving HBs, can pass block very effectively, and he's a scrappy runner. He won't outrun the defense, but he's a cheaper and more effective variant to Latavius Murray.

Sign WR Donte Moncrief 1/5/3

I really don't think this one is going to happen, but I'd love to get Moncrief in as the 3rd WR. He had a nightmare season without Luck in Indy but when he has a good QB slinging him the ball, he was an effective redzone receiver who functioned as a great #2 to Hilton. His value is at a low right now and I think he'll sign a one year deal... make it happen, Spielman!

Cap room after signings:



Alright, so we have $13M left to sign rookies and the practice squad with, which should be enough to have $4-5M left when the season starts. The Vikings could save more cap by cutting Robison or Wright, but they won't be forced to.


NFL Draft

I haven't studied the upcoming draft class very much yet, so all of these picks are going to be shots in the dark. Here goes:

Pick 1-30: T Desmond Harrison

The Vikings could use a tackle to develop behind Rieff and Remmers. Harrison was kicked out of Texas due to drug tests and played at West Georgia, but he's got the skill set to be a 1st-2nd round pick. The Vikings should be willing to take a big risk on a guy who has the talent to be an NFL tackle because the number of prospects with that ability will not be hanging around at this point in the draft.

Pick 2-30: QB Luke Falk

Drafting a QB here is going to raise some eyebrows and this was definitely not my plan, but I decided the backup QBs available in free agency just weren't that good. The Vikings should try to develop a long-term solution behind Keenum similarly to how the Patriots have drafted QBs recently. Falk has put up great stats and has an accurate arm and is a definite prospect. This doesn't mean I'm giving up on Sloter - the Vikings have shown they can carry 3 QBs on the roster - and if Keenum actually does turn out to be a long term option, Falk can be traded for draft picks in the future. 

Pick 3-30: DE Jalyn Holmes

Holmes' profile intrigued me as he was a rotational pass rusher at Ohio State and only had 2 sacks, but his measurables and speed stack up. Yes, he reminds me of Danielle Hunter. The Vikings need to have a deeper pass rush like the Eagles and Holmes could rotate in 15 times a game and provide a spark when needed.

Pick 5-30: HB Justin Jackson

The late rounds are a perfect place to find effective HBs. Guys like Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, and Jordan Howard have been drafted between the 3 to 5th rounds and the Vikings need a guy behind Cook and Burkhead. Jackson played for a uncompetitive Northwestern team but still ran for 1,311 yards and caught 44 passes. Perhaps the 5'11" 193 lbs back could prove to be a competent receiving HB.

Pick 6-30: K Daniel Carlson

Alright, so I don't recommend you draft kickers before the 7th round, but I'm doing this because the Vikings don't have a 7th rounder and it nicely completes all of the Vikings' needs. Drafting the #1 kicker in the draft class hasn't been a great idea the past few years and they're not easy to pick out. 


Whew... so that's all, folks! What do you think of this Vikings roster - could they go all the way this year? What modifications would you make if you were the GM? 

Sources: Spotrac (Cap numbers and Contract Estimations) and WalterFootball (draft prospects)